The global semiconductor market is at a pivotal moment, gradually emerging from a prolonged inventory adjustment phaseExperts predict that with the rapid growth driven by artificial intelligence (AI) applications, electric vehicles, 5G technology, and high-performance computing, the semiconductor industry could hit a staggering $1 trillion landmark by around 2030.

Recently, various signals have emerged globally regarding this sector, particularly from key players such as China, South Korea, and JapanThe data reflects diverse growth across different domains—indicative of shifting supply and demand dynamics—and hints at a general rejuvenation in the semiconductor industry.

South Korea Severe Increase in Memory Chip Exports by 60.7%

On October 14, according to data released by South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT, Korea's ICT export value soared by 24% compared to last year, reaching $22.36 billion in September 2023. This marked the 11th consecutive month of growth, setting the second highest monthly record in history.

Regarding semiconductors, the export figure for September 2024 reached $13.63 billion, a historic high with a year-on-year increase of 36.3%.

Memory chips saw a notable surge in export value, escalating 60.7% year-on-year to $8.72 billion, with a nearly 20% increase on a month-to-month basis

System semiconductors also showed progress, increasing 5.2% to $4.37 billionAccording to the Ministry, the rising demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other high-value products prompted this significant boost in memory semiconductor exports.

In the memory market, South Korea is home to the world's two largest memory chip manufacturers, Samsung and SK HynixData from TrendForce reveals that Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the DRAM and NAND Flash markets, followed by MicronThus, Korean chips continue to be a focal point of the industry’s attention.

This year's memory market has been marked by significant fluctuations, sparking concerns regarding market trends

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According to TrendForce’s analysis, demand for consumer terminals is still weak prior to the third quarter of 2024, mainly supported by AI server demands while HBM is squeezing existing DRAM production capacitiesAs a result, suppliers maintain a certain firmness regarding price increases in contractsWhile recent server OEMs are sustaining their ordering momentum, smartphone brands, however, remain cautious.

TrendForce forecasts a significant reduction in memory price increases for the upcoming quarterFor general DRAM prices, the anticipated increase ranges from 0% to 5%, but due to the rising proportion of HBM, overall DRAM average prices are expected to rise between 8% to 13%, a notable contraction compared to previous quarters.

China 22% Growth in Integrated Circuit Exports

Recently, statistics from Chinese customs indicated that in the first three quarters, China's import and export totaled 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, with exports at 18.62 trillion yuan, rising 6.2%, while imports reached 13.71 trillion yuan, climbing by 4.1%.

On the export front, China's machinery and electronics exports reached 11.03 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, up 8%, accounting for 59.3% of total exports

Notably, high-end equipment exports surged by 43.4%, while integrated circuits, automobiles, and home appliances saw respective increases of 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%. Traditional labor-intensive products also experienced a modest increase, exporting 3.13 trillion yuan, which is a growth of 2.8%.

On the imports side, in the first three quarters, the value of imported integrated circuits and automobile parts increased by 13.5% and 4.6%, respectively, while consumer goods imported surpassed 1.3 trillion yuan.

Regionally, the diversification of the overall import-export market is steadily advancing, with trade growth with over 160 countries and regions worldwide

Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative amounted to 15.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.3%, enhancing its share to 47.1%. Intra-regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) transactions totaled 9.63 trillion yuan, growing by 4.5%. Trade with the European Union and the United States saw respective movements of 4.18 trillion yuan and 3.59 trillion yuan, with growth rates of 0.9% and 4.2%.

Further analysis of previous data suggests that the first half of 2024 has brought great news for China's integrated circuit sectorIn figures from January to July, import and export data for integrated circuits recorded double-digit growth for seven consecutive months, with total exports reaching 640.91 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.8%; imports also grew by 14.4%.

In terms of volume, during the January to July period, China produced 244.5 billion integrated circuits, marking a 29.3% increase, suggesting a steady rise in output

Reports from regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou highlighted significantly positive outcomes regarding integrated circuit outputFor instance, Beijing's production exceeded 10 billion units in the first half of the year, while the integrated circuit industry in Shanghai's Lingang Special Area is projected to exceed 40 billion yuan in size by 2024; simulations for both Guangzhou’s analog chips and integrated circuit wafers indicated respective growths of 45.9% and 88.3%. These trends reflect a burgeoning phase for China's integrated circuit industry.

Japan Increased Semiconductor Equipment Exports to China by 61.6%

According to prior data published by Japan's Ministry of Finance, semiconductor equipment exports to China surged by 61.6% in August, reaching 179.9 billion yen (1.799 trillion won, approximately $1.29 billion).

In August, Japan exported a total of 6,742 tons of equipment to China, showing a 41% increase from the previous month

Mechanical devices accounted for 23.2% of Japan's total exports to China, with semiconductor equipment comprising 11.9%.

These figures highlight Japan's crucial role within the global semiconductor supply chain.

Additionally, ASML, a giant in the lithography machine sector from the Netherlands, announced earlier that its export value to China increased by 21% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of this year, totaling 2.3 billion euros (which corresponds to 3.47 trillion won).

ASML primarily provides cutting-edge lithography equipment and is the only manufacturer capable of mass-producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines